Victorians will choose their next state government on 28 November. Like many other Australian jurisdictions, Victorian politics has been dominated by the major parties for decades.
This election, however, is different. Opinion polls show that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party, which first emerged in the late 1990s, has been performing strongly. The party has the potential to have a significant impact on the election outcome if it was to achieve the results indicated in the polls.
What is the state of the parties now?
Labor has governed the state since 2014 and is seeking to win a record fourth consecutive term in power. Labor enjoys a significant buffer because in the last election held in 2022 it won 56 of the 88 seats in the lower house. On the other hand, the Coalition won just 28 seats. Since then, the Liberal Party has improved its representation in the chamber, but still requires winning at least an additional 16 seats to win government.
The major parties have endured organisational instability in the post-covid years. Labor has changed its leader three times in the last three years, while the Liberal Party has gone through four leaders in four years. The current contest is between two leaders who have never led their party to victory at a general election. Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier in July, while Jess Wilson became Liberal leader in November 2025.
The policy debate has been dominated by traditional state-based issues including law and order, housing, service delivery, and the state of the roads.
But beyond the policy debate are many other issues which will have important implications for the future of the state, especially for younger voters since those aged 18-44 make up 44 per cent of the electorate in 2026.
The rise of One Nation
The Victorian state election also represents the biggest test yet of how sustainable One Nation’s latest surge really is. The party’s breakthrough in South Australia in March, where it outpolled the Liberals, could be read as a rejection of a very weak state Liberal Party, and by-election wins can sometimes be put down to protest votes. Victoria is different. The party has fronted its most detailed state election platform yet and is campaigning as if it genuinely expects to win (or at least come close), trying to turn its polling into a lasting claim to be the nation’s third force. The election is also a test of whether the considerable investment in that campaign, by the party and its funders, actually pays off at the ballot box. And if the Coalition falls short of a majority, it may well need One Nation’s support to govern.
Younger voters may decide how far that surge goes. It is tempting to import the global story of young men lurching right, but the Australian evidence is mixed at best. Indeed, the most visible political mobilisation by young Australians this year has been against the party, with thousands of students walking out of class in August to protest Hanson. Whether One Nation can win over a generation whose most visible political action this year has been to protest it will go a long way to deciding whether this surge is a moment or a genuine realignment.
Truth and integrity
Increasingly, we are starting to see a range of AI-generated political ads, including by the Liberal, Labor, and One Nation parties. Some of these ads are satirical and most seek to denigrate their opponents. These AI ads are promulgated on platforms such as Instagram and YouTube, and are presumably intended to capture the attention of the younger voting demographic.
However, current regulation in Victoria and federally does not encompass the truth of political advertising, meaning that political parties are free to lie in their ads without repercussion. The only current regulation prohibits misleading a voter in the casting of their vote.
By contrast, South Australia and the ACT have truth in political advertising laws, that have operated well, and have a positive conditioning effect on political discourse, while being narrow enough to maintain freedom of expression.
As the election campaign heats up, it will be interesting to see if outright lies are bandied about by political participants, and if these will influence young voters.
Enhancing civics literacy
Democracy is strengthened when citizens are equipped with the skills and confidence to not just participate in democratic events, like voting, but also to lead meaningful change in their communities. These skills, however, need nurturing and support. As such, education programs across Australia, and abroad, have sought to build young peoples’ political knowledge through civics and citizenship curricula. Often, these programs upskill young people about democratic principles and processes, as well as their rights and responsibilities as citizens. Possessing this knowledge can also help identify mis/disinformation as it arises.
Recent data, however, has indicated that learning outcomes of young Australians have fallen sharply. In 2010, for example, 49 per cent of Year 10 students met the proficient standard on the National Assessment Program – Civics and Citizenship. In 2024, this result had fallen to just 28 per cent.
While the result in Victoria was slightly higher (34 per cent), it still indicates that about two thirds of Year 10 students are not achieving the proficient standard. This requires action, as many students will never have the opportunity to learn about politics and government unless they enrol in specialist elective units.
An incoming state government must be open to listening to the experiences of young people and supporting educators in equipping students with critical knowledge and skills.
Progressing the conversation
This election will be like no other in Victorian history. It will be dominated by younger voters and their decision will shape the political landscape for years to come.
These issues, and other pressing matters regarding the upcoming election, will be discussed at a special forum held by the School of Social Sciences at Monash University and the Victorian Electoral Commission on Thursday 15 October. Register here.
The event will be moderated by Annika Smethurst, Victorian Affairs Editor at The Age, and will feature a keynote address by Victoria’s Electoral Commissioner Sven Bluemmel. Panellists will feature experts from Monash University including Dr Benjamin Moffitt, Dr Yee-Fui Ng, and Dr Zareh Ghazarian.
