Indonesia’s sinking city, and the blueprint for its new capital in Borneo

More people are living in cities than ever before, with much of the rapid urbanisation occurring in the Global South, particularly in Southeast Asia.

Indonesia is the fourth-most-populous country in the world, and in 1950 only about 12% of its population resided in urban areas, which has risen to about 58% in 2022, and is expected to rise to 73% by 2050.

Asian cities are struggling under the weight of this rapid urbanisation, as exemplified by Jakarta, which is literally sinking.

Jakarta is sinking rapidly due to uncontrolled groundwater extraction, river sedimentation, and sea level rise. Its population of 11 million, and greater than 30 million in the Jakarta metropolitan area (Jabodetabekjur), are suffering as a consequence.

Currently, 40% of north Jakarta is below sea level. In certain areas, neighbourhoods are sinking by up to 15cm per year.

In response, a number of grand mega-infrastructure plans have been proposed to protect Jakarta’s coastline and flood-proof the city, primarily revolving around upgrading existing flood protections and building new Dutch-styled seawalls.

The building of the “Giant Sea Wall” – described as a three-layered sea wall, with the outer layer acting as a causeway and breakwater – has been included in the Jakarta 2030 Master Plan. The dam created by the wall will serve as a water catchment basin for the 13 rivers that run through the city, and a water treatment plant will ensure water quality.

The project, developed with the government of Netherlands, has undergone multiple iterations, with the most recent including reclaimed land in the shape of a Garuda, the country’s emblem, symbolising the Garuda as the saviour of the nation, a bold and courageous figure that can bring prosperity to Indonesia.

Despite progress in planning the Giant Sea Wall, the project has been postponed due to high costs, problems with reclamation, and public criticism.

Saving Jakarta has become politicised, leading to a never-ending debate about how this should be done. Partly in response to this, in 2019, President Jokowi decided to move the capital city to Borneo.

In 2022, the new capital was officially named Nusantara (also referred to in Indonesian as Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN); in English “new capital Nusantara”), and is set to be inaugurated in 2024. Building is expected to start in 2023, and the first two million people are expected to live there by 2039.

The new capital

There’s been substantial debate among journalists, environmentalists and academics in the media about the plan to move the new capital, due to Borneo's importance for the environment.

Borneo is home to one of the last remaining large intact contiguous tropical forested landscapes, and is a globally important carbon sink. It’s a major evolutionary hotspot for fauna and flora, with species found nowhere else in the world.

The central region of Borneo is home to the Heart of Borneo transboundary conservation zone, slightly smaller than the land area of the United Kingdom. Its oceans are home to the coral reef triangle, sometimes referred to as the “Amazon of the ocean”.

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Read more: Will relocating Indonesia's capital prove a success story?

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To many, moving the capital is seen as advocating responsibility for addressing the current environmental and social problems associated with Jakarta, and potentially creating another environmental crisis in arguably one of the most important locations globally for biodiversity and carbon.

This concern has primarily been regarding the nature of urbanisation in the new capital. While initial announcements about its design suggested it would be planned around environmental principles, as a forest city or biocity, they’ve been treated with some degree of scepticism.

However, the shroud of secrecy around the design of the new capital has only recently been lifted, which has included the unveiling of the new capital website, and more details regarding the design and location have emerged.

The website describes eight principles, and provides a glimpse of the new capital’s aspirations.

There’s no shortage of great ideas, and lofty ambitions, as fleshed out in a more detailed manner by these principles. For example, 80% of the trips within the new capital are set to be completed using transit and/or combinations of walking and cycling. (By way of  comparison, 67% of residents of New York City, long considered as a champion of sustainable transportation, use a combination of transit, bike, and walk.)

Another principle outlines that the new capital would emit zero emissions by 2045, all while cementing its status as the region that has the highest regional domestic product and the lowest poverty level compared with more than 500 districts in the country. Finally, 75% of the new capital will comprise green areas.

Potential to become the world’s most sustainable city

What has been outlined in the eight new capital (IKN) principles, on paper, appears to be unmatched by any existing city in the country and around the world, in both the Global North and Global South.

If the city is indeed built based on these principles, it has the potential to provide a blueprint for “the world’s most sustainable city”.

Further, details have emerged regarding the existing land cover in the immediate area of the initial city boundary – it’s primarily non-indigenous eucalypt plantation forestry.

Therefore, biodiversity impacts directly associated with the city’s footprint may be positive if converted to natural ecosystems. In fact, the new capital may be one of the most ambitious urban restoration programs to date – fitting, given that it’s the UN decade of restoration.

Two major challenges

However, there are two major challenges for the new capital if it is to become a shining example of sustainable urbanisation.

Firstly, the implementation and construction will need to live up to the expectations regarding sustainable urban design. In Southeast Asia this is often not the case, as seen in other cities and urban developments, where green credentials just amount to greenwashing.

Secondly, and perhaps most concerning, is how the city impacts on the natural environment outside its boundaries.

Megacities and capital cities usually outpace the growth of other cities and also have a ripple effect, promoting growth in nearby cities in the surrounding region.

It’s important that urban design regulations outside the capital be equally sustainable, otherwise the spillover effects on Borneo’s natural landscape may be far greater than the positive impacts within the city boundaries.

Along with urban growth, any transport infrastructure that connects the new capital to other parts of Borneo, including Sarawak, Sabah and Brunei, will promote deforestation as previously inaccessible parts of the island are developed. There are already plans to build a number of new highways that criss-cross Borneo, to connect the new capital.

While the designs and plans for the new capital are promising, whether it becomes a model for sustainable urban transformation in Southeast Asia or an impending environmental disaster will depend on its implementation and how the government regulates sustainable development across the whole island.

The concern is that a failure here will have global repercussions for addressing the twin challenges of climate change and biodiversity.