Severe cyclones more likely
In Australia, the tropical cyclone season, which runs from November to April, is fast approaching. Last week, the Bureau of Meteorology released its long-range tropical cyclone forecast for the upcoming season. The forecast predicts that about 11 tropical cyclones, on average, are expected to form in the region, with four likely to make landfall in Australia. However, the likelihood of severe cyclones is higher than usual.
“The likelihood of severe (strong) tropical cyclones is higher than average, because of the warmer than average ocean temperatures forecast for the Australian region.”
But what does an “average” number of tropical cyclones really mean in the context of our rapidly changing climate? And why is the risk of intense cyclones increasing?The BOM’s prediction aligns with scientific research, which suggests climate change is likely to result in fewer, but more intense, tropical cyclones. The cyclones that do form could have a greater chance of reaching category four or five status, with wind gusts exceeding 225kmh.
These cyclones are now expected to bring stronger winds, heavier rainfall, a greater risk of flooding, and significant coastal damage.
If we experience more than the recent average of eight or nine cyclones – something that could happen if La Niña conditions materialise – the risk of impacts increases.
But there’s some good news. The BOM has just released a statement that we’re more likely to see neutral conditions this next cyclone season, and in general, climate change may have reduced La Niña’s influence on boosting cyclone activity in the Australian region.
With many ocean heat records recently broken, we’re in “uncharted waters” when it comes to sea temperatures.
Another concern is the unusually warm ocean temperatures, which play a key role in fuelling tropical cyclones. With many ocean heat records recently broken, we’re in “uncharted waters” when it comes to sea temperatures.
This adds more uncertainty to predictions of tropical cyclone activity, as historical ocean temperature patterns may no longer hold true in the current climate.