As the 2030 deadline for the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is fast approaching, attention is turning towards what comes next. 

The official UN-led process of negotiations for the post-2030 global sustainable development agenda is expected to start in 2027. However, proposals are already emerging from different sectors about what the next agenda should contain. 

In a new article published in Science, we argue that any proposal for the post-2030 agenda needs to be grounded in a clear and explicit theory of change that explains why and how it will accelerate implementation and lead to better outcomes. 

We then go on to suggest an approach to assess the impact and feasibility of various proposals.

Achievements and failures of the SDGs

The unanimous adoption of the SDGs by all UN member states in 2015 is a landmark achievement in creating a shared vision for sustainable development. 

The goals encompassed various issues that our societies have been grappling with, from eradicating poverty to quality health and education, clean and affordable energy for all, addressing inequalities, climate action and protecting our natural environment. 

These challenges are as relevant today as they were in 2015 when the goals were adopted. 

The goals were novel in several ways. They applied equally to all countries. They highlighted the interlinked nature of economic, social and environmental systems. They aspired to “leave no-one behind”, and emphasised the role of partnerships between governments, business and civil society to achieve the goals. 

The SDGs have since met with some success as many countries and cities have localised the goals, are monitoring and reporting progress, and are steadilyworking toward their achievement. 

Many businesses have aligned with the SDGs, and civil society organisations have endorsed them. 

Global frameworks such as the SDGs can also provide legitimacy, shared expectations and a common language. 

Read more: Mixed progress on Sustainable Development Goals: How Australia can turn the tide

In addition, SDGs support coordination, foster learning and comparison across contexts, and encourage resource allocation and action needed from all countries to address challenges of a global nature.

Despite these achievements, progress has been slow and far from ideal, with less than 20% of targets on track to be met by 2030. The SDGs gave the world a shared vision; however, goal-setting alone was never going to deliver the scale of change required. 

The SDGs provided direction, but not the mechanisms needed to overcome a multitude of political, financial and institutional barriers that block change.

The SDGs showed us where to go – now we need a roadmap that shows how to get there. A stronger theory of change can help turn ambition into action and ensure the next global agenda delivers the transformations people and the planet deserve.

Shaping a stronger post-2030 agenda

In our post-2030 initiative at Monash University, we’ve partnered with the Stockholm Environment Institute to ensure any future framework is grounded in the latest scientific knowledge and evidence. 

To this end, we’re convening a global consortium of SDG experts and stakeholders from around the world in a series of workshops and activities to develop systematic insights in support of the post-2030 negotiations. 

We also work with our partners in various governments and UN agencies to create impact pathways.

Our new article in Science is the outcome of a 2024 workshop at the Monash University, Indonesia campus, where we met as a group of 23 researchers spanning 17 research institutions globally. In this piece, we argue that while the SDGs remain a landmark achievement in creating a shared global vision for sustainable development, they were underpinned by some flawed assumptions about how goal‑setting would drive real‑world action.

Through a detailed content analysis of the 2030 agenda, we reconstructed the “implicit theory of change” that shaped the SDGs and critically reflected on what has or hasn’t worked as intended. 

We found that the framework assumed global goals would naturally translate into national strategies, mobilise actors and ultimately transform societies, but without being explicit about roadblocks that would impede change.

We identified several systemic weaknesses that have hindered progress, including limited national leadership, weak incentives for business and non‑government actors, superficial voluntary reviews, missing or outdated target areas such as artificial intelligence and international spillovers, and insufficient clarity on the transformations required to achieve the goals.

Read more: A reflection on progress, promise and the path ahead: A decade on from the Paris Agreement

With proposals for the next global framework already emerging, we argue that a systematic method is needed to assess which ideas are both impactful and politically feasible within an increasingly polarised global landscape. 

This requires being clear about how each proposal would drive sustainable development, identifying what will be effective and how it will overcome the barriers that have hampered progress to date. 

We’re taking the post-2030 initiative forward with a range of activities, including a recent gathering of the consortium in Stockholm in December 2025, where we planned for the coming years and impact pathways.  

The SDGs were always ambitious, and full delivery was never going to be easy. They remain vital, but future success depends on a much clearer focus on implementation – understanding what’s blocking change and being explicit about how transformation happens.

While a stronger theory of change will not solve every implementation challenge, it will provide a more solid foundation for governments, businesses and communities to drive real progress on the ground.