‘What Happens Next?’: Will Climate Change Wipe Out the Indo-Pacific?

What Happens Next?, the Monash University podcast that takes on today’s biggest global challenges, is back with an all-new series today, exploring the dire effects of climate change in our neck of the woods – the Indo-Pacific. Unfortunately, it’s a region that’s uniquely vulnerable to environmental changes, and with COP29 on the horizon, there’s no better time to learn what’s at stake for the Indo-Pacific, why it matters, and what we can do about it.

The Indo-Pacific’s unique climate challenges

The Indo-Pacific spans vast, diverse environments, from the tropical coasts of Indonesia to Australia’s arid interiors to Antarctic glaciers. Here, climate change isn’t a future problem – its extreme impacts and effects on human lives are undeniable.

On the latest episode of the podcast, host Dr Susan Carland and her guests cover everything from rising sea levels and intense weather events to the very real human cost these changes are bringing.

Professor Tony Capon, Director of Monash’s Sustainable Development Institute, opens the conversation with a discussion of some of these health impacts. In places such as India and the Philippines, pollution from burning coal is worsening air quality, putting millions of lives at risk. He emphasises that Australia, as a major coal exporter, can’t ignore the role it plays.

“When people are dying from pollution caused by our coal, it’s a moral issue as much as it is a climate one,” he says. Capon’s point is powerful – it’s a reminder that climate change isn’t just an abstract issue; it’s deeply tied to people’s health and wellbeing across the region.

Listen: Is Australia Behind in the Critical Minerals Race?

How stories shape our understanding of climate change

When it comes to influencing how we think and act about climate change, Dr Gabriel García Ochoa, an expert on climate narratives and Director of Monash’s Global Immersion Guarantee program, knows that storytelling can make or break the movement.

Facts are essential, but stories resonate emotionally, which can drive real change – or mislead people. He points out that when misinformation is shared in a compelling way, it can lead people to believe harmful narratives.

“We’re hardwired to respond to stories, not just numbers,” he explains. For climate change, this means we need accurate, empowering stories – not just frightening statistics – to motivate action.

“The impacts of climate change and how it's shifted our livelihoods have been extraordinarily profound in that when nature changes, our culture changes with it, because our culture is very much based on nature and how we interact with nature.” – Dr Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson

In the Indo-Pacific, where climate issues are urgent, how we tell these stories really matters. If all we hear is despair, we begin to feel helpless. Stories that show people adapting and pushing for change can inspire us to get involved.

Listen: Why Are We So Anxious About the Earth?

The cultural and human impact of rising sea levels

For Pacific Islanders, climate change isn’t just about abstract statistics – it’s personal. Dr Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson, a Samoan journalist, discusses the emotional toll of potentially losing homes, lands and even cultural heritage to rising sea levels. For Jackson and her community, relocating isn’t a simple solution.

“Our connection to the land is spiritual; you can’t replace it by just moving somewhere else,” she says.

Pacific Island communities are resilient and have long been adapting to environmental changes, but this resilience often goes unacknowledged in international media.

Dr Jackson’s perspective challenges the typical “climate refugee” story, which can oversimplify the situation. Instead, she calls for narratives that highlight the strength and cultural richness of Pacific Islanders as they navigate this crisis.

Climate modelling and future risks for the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region is expansive and complex, making it hard to predict exactly how climate change will unfold. Professor Christian Jakob, Director of the Monash-based ARC Centre of Excellence for Weather of the 21st Century, explains how warming temperatures and rising sea levels pose serious risks to the region. Even small temperature increases in the tropics can have devastating effects on human health, especially in places with high humidity.

“The hotter and more humid it gets, the harder it is for people to cool down, which makes heatwaves especially dangerous,” he notes.

And it’s not just about the temperature. Sea levels are rising as warmer water expands and ice melts in Greenland and Antarctica. Even if we stopped emissions today, Professor Jakob says, the ocean would continue to rise for years, threatening coastal and island communities.

“We’ve locked in a certain amount of sea level rise already,” he adds, making the need for climate adaptation and mitigation all the more pressing.

Read more: The impact of climate change on human health

Nuanced narratives and policy implications

Dr Elissa Waters, a political geographer working on climate adaptation in Monash’s Faculty of Arts, brings a critical perspective on how narratives regarding climate change shape policy responses and funding.

She points out that while Pacific Islands are undoubtedly vulnerable to climate impacts such as rising sea levels and extreme weather, oversimplified narratives often overshadow the region’s complexity and resilience.

She stresses that painting the Indo-Pacific as merely “doomed” can be damaging; it risks diverting resources away from crucial short- and medium-term adaptation efforts that could significantly improve life in these communities now.

Dr Waters argues for a nuanced approach that recognises the right of Pacific Islanders to remain on their land as long as possible, rather than preemptively planning for mass migration.

She believes it’s essential to support locally-led adaptation measures as a matter of human rights. Her insights reinforce the importance of nuanced climate narratives that respect both the resilience and agency of these communities.

The importance of COP29 for the Indo-Pacific

With COP29 just around the corner, this episode calls for global attention to the Indo-Pacific’s climate crisis. Climate change’s effects aren’t one-size-fits-all, and as the region deals with unique challenges, policies must address the specific needs of our communities.

Climate action involves more than simply understanding climate science – it’s about respecting the people and cultures that are most affected, and crafting solutions that prioritise their wellbeing.

Next week, What Happens Next? listeners will learn how we can tell climate stories that focus on action and solutions instead of just doom and gloom. Tune in for fresh perspectives and stories of resilience.

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