Gaza peace plan offers hope, but also faces major hurdles

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his side, US President Donald Trump presented on Monday, 29 September, his ambitious 20-point plan to end the two-year war in Gaza — a conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives, Israeli and Palestinian.

The roadmap, beginning with an immediate ceasefire, is the product of an intensive US-led diplomatic effort, culminating in Trump securing support not only from Israel but also from a broad coalition of Muslim and Arab states.

Hostages freed and Gaza rebuilt without Hamas

From Israel’s perspective, the plan delivers significant gains. The most immediate is the release of the remaining 48 hostages held in Gaza — though only 20 are believed to be alive. In return, Israel will free more than 2000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences for terror and murder offences (Israel holds 280 such prisoners, including popular Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti who is not expected to be released).

Another central goal is neutralising Gaza as a post-war security threat. Trump’s plan calls for a fully demilitarised Strip: Hamas operatives must dismantle their weapons, shut down arms production, and destroy their extensive tunnel network, which runs beneath schools, hospitals, and homes. Militants would only receive amnesty if they commit to peaceful coexistence or agree to leave Gaza. While not stated in the text, it is implied that Hamas members who refuse to do either could be targeted by Israel.

The demand for Hamas’ exclusion from Gaza’s future is backed by almost the entire international community. Under the plan, the Strip would be administered not by Hamas but by a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee”—an idea first floated by Egypt. Work on forming this body has already begun, with Israel vetting candidates, including former Palestinian officials, ex-UN staff, and professionals with no Hamas ties. Oversight would rest with an international “Board of Peace,” chaired by Donald Trump and featuring former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair in a prominent role.

This governing body would coordinate billions of dollars in reconstruction aid to be pledged by Arab states and other donors. Gaza’s infrastructure, services, and housing have been devastated by Israel’s offensive, leaving much of the Strip in ruins and an ongoing  humanitarian crisis.

As the plan unfolds, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will gradually withdraw, establishing a 5–10 km security perimeter inside Gaza. Israel will retain control of the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border, a historic trafficking route used by Hamas to import weapons and goods underground and fill its coffers by taxing the smugglers and the goods.

In parallel, a “temporary International Stabilisation Force” (ISF) created by the US, Israel and Arab countries (Egypt and Jordan specifically) will also train local Palestinians to assume policing and security duties.

The challenges of PA reform and Palestinian statehood

The Palestinian Authority (PA), created under the Oslo Accords, watches from the sidelines. Financially strapped, its leaders would be delighted to see Israel weakening their archrival Hamas, while also being accused of genocide.

Under Donald Trump’s plan, control of Gaza would be transferred to the PA only after sweeping reforms to eliminate corruption, nepotism, and support for terrorism. This includes abolishing the PA’s “pay-for-slay” program, which provides stipends to Palestinians convicted of attacks on Israelis.

Whether the PA can — or will — reform is uncertain, particularly as 90-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas nears the end of his tenure. Even if long-delayed elections are held, polls suggest victory for factions advocating continued “armed struggle” against Israel, undermining prospects for peace.

Trump’s plan envisions Palestinian statehood only once reforms take root:

“Only after the PA reforms, conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognise as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.”

Yet even this distant prospect poses a political threat to Benjamin Netanyahu, whose far-right coalition partners—Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — adamantly oppose a Palestinian state. They have promoted settlement expansion in the West Bank to block its creation.

The new plan also abandons Trump’s earlier “Gaza Riviera” proposal, which envisioned mass relocation of Gazans and redevelopment of the Strip as a Middle Eastern Las Vegas. Instead, Trump now insists,

“No one will be forced to leave Gaza … We will encourage people to stay and offer them the opportunity to build a better Gaza.”

This shift by Trump is a kiss-of-death for Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who hoped to re-establish Israeli settlements in Gaza (first erected in 1970 and later dismantled in 2005). Should they withdraw from the coalition, Netanyahu may be forced to seek support from opposition figures such as centrist Benny Gantz, who has previously joined Netanyahu-led governments during crises (corona and following 7 October).

Hamas cornered

While Hamas could still derail the plan, the group is under severe pressure. The IDF controls much of Gaza and is advancing on Hamas strongholds in Gaza City and central refugee camps. More than one million Gazans are displaced, living in dire conditions in tents located in the humanitarian zone in the south. Social cohesion is fraying, with armed anti-Hamas clans emerging, some operating as proxies of Israel.

Hamas has lost crucial allies: Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar now back the Trump plan. Qatar is believed to have struck a deal with Washington to pressure Hamas to accept the Trump plan in exchange for ‘humiliating’ Netanyahu, who was forced to publicly apologise for the failed Israeli strike on senior Hamas officials on Qatari soil.

Still, Hamas is very reluctant to surrender its last remaining bargaining chips: the hostages and its weapons. A vague promise of future statehood and the return of the PA is not enough of an achievement to justify what befell the Palestinians as a result of the 7 October attack. And the return of the PA to Gaza, even if through the back door, is a major blow for Hamas.

Trump has demanded Hamas respond to his plan within days, warning that rejection would prompt US approval for an Israeli offensive to “finish the job,” as Netanyahu put it.

Israelis and Palestinians yearn for an end

Above all, both societies are exhausted.

In Israel, the trauma of 7 October, 2023 — marked by mass killings, kidnappings, and sexual violence — has left deep scars. Protests demanding the return of hostages and an end to the war have been staged for months. Only when these two objectives are achieved can the painful process of inner healing begin, which may also include a way towards future reconciliation with the Palestinians.

In Gaza, civilians bear the brunt of destruction, displacement, and loss of life and livelihood. Many now openly distance themselves from Hamas and demand the war end. The Trump plan promises a surge of humanitarian aid, relief from Hamas’ rule since 2007, and at least a glimmer of hope for a more stable and prosperous future.

As of now, and although Hamas officials initially rejected the plan, meeting with the mediators on 30 September Hamas’ reply was a tentative “yes,” coupled with demands for clarifications on IDF withdrawal, ceasefire guarantees, protection from targeted assassinations, and the disarmament process.

These are not minor issues, and the Qataris have since noted that negotiations are required to iron out the details of the plan. Such talks may take weeks. But time is running out for Gazans and for the Israeli hostages.