Australian federal election 2025: Where it was won and lost

After weeks of vigorous campaigning, the Australian federal election result became clear within two hours of polling stations closing. Labor was on track to increase its majority in the House of Representatives while the Coalition was heading for a devastating loss.

With the dust now settling on the result, we can examine where the election was won and lost, and what this means for Australian politics over the next three years.

A big Labor win

A surprising outcome of the election was the size of Labor’s win. Opinion polls were indicating that there was a bit of momentum towards Labor. The final Newspoll before the election, for example, indicated Labor leading 52.5% to 47.5% for the Coalition on the two-party preferred measure. This is the most important measure as it gives an indication of which party is most likely to be able to form government.

While the final results are yet to be finalised, Labor’s actual performance was somewhat stronger, currently 54.9 to 45.1 per cent for the Coalition.

It wasn’t all bad news for the Coalition parties, however. The National Party actually increased its representation from 9 to 10 seats according to the latest count, while its primary vote went up slightly.

Collapsing support for the Liberal Party

The real problem in the Coalition was with the Liberal Party. As leader, Peter Dutton had invested heavily in crafting a strategy that sought to appeal to suburban voters. This was underpinned by two key policies.

First, the Liberal Party vowed to reduce the excise on fuel. This was ostensibly targeted towards urban voters who relied on their cars, rather than public transport, to go about their daily lives. Second, the Liberal Party promoted its solution to reducing energy prices by proposing nuclear energy in Australia.

While both policies were aimed at addressing cost-of-living concerns, an issue that was paramount in the election, the response from voters was dire. There was also a strong swing against Peter Dutton in his own seat of Dickson which ended his parliamentary career.

In Melbourne, the Liberal Party needed to win seats to the east of the city. In seats such as Aston, Bruce, Chisholm, and Deakin, however, the party’s primary vote went backwards. This meant that the Liberal Party lost the marginal seat of Deakin and could not reclaim Aston, a seat it had lost at a byelection in 2023. Since the Liberal Party had already lost ground at the 2022 election, the result at this election indicates that the party’s approach was not resonating with voters in key electorates.

Poor result for the Greens

With the focus on the major parties, the Australian Greens were also struggling on election night. Following a triumphant 2022 election, in which the party won four seats in the Lower House, the Greens appear to be on track to lose three seats in 2025. Compounding the poor result was that the party’s leader, Adam Bandt, also looked likely to lose his seat of Melbourne.

Mixed fortunes for the independents

A major story of the 2022 election was the success of independent candidates. In the Melbourne seats of Kooyong and Goldstein, Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel, respectively, were able to defeat the Liberal Party incumbents in what were up until then strongholds for the party.

In 2025, however, the results were mixed for the independents. Monique Ryan appears to be maintaining a lead in Kooyong, but Liberal Tim Wilson, who had previously been defeated by Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, was edging ahead in the count. This was despite Ms Daniel appearing to be in a winning position on election night.

Mr Wilson will be the only Liberal to have won a seat off the independents. Furthermore, his campaign strategy may provide important lessons for the Liberal Party at the national level.

The next parliamentary term

Results of the Senate are yet to be finalised, but indications are that Labor will need to negotiate with cross bench MPs and/or the Coalition to pass its bills through the Upper House.

The attention, in the short-term at least, will be on the Liberal Party. There will be spirited debate among party insiders about where things went so wrong after seemingly enjoying a period of ascendency in the political debate in the months leading up to the election. Some have argued the party needs to focus on advancing conservative policies, while others within the party seek to have a broader policy approach.

Labor will return to the national parliament with greater numbers and a prime minister buoyed by a strong win, while the Opposition will need to hold the government accountable while planning its future directions.