No-confidence motion: Crunch time for the party leaders in Victoria

The Victorian opposition leader, Michael O’Brien, plans to move a motion of no-confidence against Premier Daniel Andrews in Parliament this week. While this is a symbolic act for the opposition, it will in practice yield little political gain.

In the Victorian system of government, which is based on the British Westminster model, a party remains in government as long as it can demonstrate it has the confidence (or, in other words, a majority of support) in Parliament. The planned motion of no-confidence by the opposition seeks to test this level of support.

The implications of a motion of no-confidence in Parliament are huge. If a majority of parliamentarians vote with the opposition, then the government could fall.

In this case, the government should not feel nervous. In the 2018 election, Labor won 55 of the 88 seats in Parliament, compared to just 27 by the Liberal and National coalition. At least 11 Labor MPs would have to cross the floor and vote with the opposition. This seems highly unlikely.

Regardless of the probable result, the opposition will hope the no-confidence motion will galvanise support. The job of the state opposition leader is difficult at the best of times, let alone during a pandemic. The sitting schedule of Parliament was disrupted by coronavirus, and subsequently impacted opportunities for O’Brien to energise supporters.

The political stakes are high for O’Brien. There have been reports that Liberal Party MPs have been unimpressed with his leadership style. Speculation has been building about reinstating former leader Matthew Guy, who led the party to a crushing defeat in 2018. With limited opportunities to feature in the mainstream media, this motion will provide O’Brien with a clear platform to attack the government and reassert his authority as Liberal leader.

Leadership strained

The leadership of Premier Andrews has also come under strain. The resignation of health minister Jenny Mikakos, and her subsequent claims that she should not be held solely accountable for the problematic hotel quarantine program, has been distracting for the government. The resignation of the secretary of the Department of Premier and Cabinet has also set off fresh speculation about the leadership of Andrews, with reports that some within Labor are considering a change of leader.

Changing leaders will have different results for the opposition and government parties. For the Liberal Party, a new leader would not necessarily improve the party’s standing in the electorate.

O’Brien’s leadership appears to be affected by the party’s disastrous 2018 campaign. His approach seems to be trying to mobilise traditional Liberal Party supporters, many of whom appeared to abandon it at the last election. As the party found out, campaigning hard primarily on law and order issues limited its appeal in the electorate.

For the Labor Party, removing Dan Andrews would be fraught with political danger. For all the problems the government has faced, Andrews’ personal popularity is still high. Based on such results, he still appears to be the best chance of Labor retaining power at the next election.

As Victoria has fixed electoral terms, the next election is due in November 2022. While it's hoped a vaccine for COVID-19 may have been found by then, it will be the performance of the leaders during this crisis that many citizens will remember, and determine who they will vote for.