The paradigm shift needed to address growing global fragility

Conflict dynamics are impacted by natural and man-made disasters, environmental degradation, weak governance, forced migration, digital disruption, transnational crime, communicable diseases, and economic, food and health insecurities.

These challenges increase the likelihood of an outbreak or escalation of conflict, and compromise efforts to resolve conflict and build peace. Conversely, the outbreak and escalation of conflict increases the likelihood and the magnitude of these challenges.

A vicious circle can ensue, with each threat feeding another, leading to globalised, multi-layered, seemingly intractable polycrises.

For instance, armed conflict can facilitate the spread of epidemics and pandemics partly because of depleted state capacity to detect and control outbreaks, collapsed health and sanitation systems, including the interruption of immunisations, and high levels of food insecurity.

Conversely, epidemics and pandemics can feed conflict dynamics and other forms of insecurity, as COVID-19 did, including by decreasing community and state resilience, compounding grievances and trauma, increasing poverty and hunger, and providing justifications to increase lethal force and decrease civil liberties.

Similarly, organised crime and corruption can be both symptoms and causes of instability and insecurity globally.

Likewise, other transnational security threats, such as terrorism and piracy, are often fed by and, in turn, feed other sources of insecurity, including armed conflict, socioeconomic inequalities and other development challenges, and weak governance.

The intersection of these threats is complex and dynamic, and is impacted – both positively and negatively – by a range of factors, including efforts to address these threats.

Large-scale migration is also often both a consequence of conflict and other threats, such as the climate crisis and criminal violence, and a trigger for further violence and insecurity – from armed conflict, to trafficking and modern slavery.

While conflict causes mass displacement of peoples, forced migration can also ignite fears of a “spillover of conflict”, as was feared after thousands of people fled Syria into Iraq, Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon.

Migration and conflict are also linked to the spread of communicable diseases, including epidemics and pandemics, as well as environmental degradation.

Indeed, the intersection of the climate crisis, large-scale migration and conflict is one of the most pressing global challenges. Water insecurity and land degradation has intensified the impacts of the civil war in Syria. Along with multiple socio-political factors, these environmental factors contributed to triggering the conflict and, in turn, exacerbated the conflict.

Elsewhere, in the Sahel, environmental degradation has similarly intensified the effects of the conflict, and is both a consequence of the conflict and a driver.

As drought and armed violence cause people to flee and causes severe economic insecurity, many people become vulnerable to exploitation by armed and terrorist groups – further fuelling insecurity and violence.

Darfur has been referred to as “the first climate change war” by the UN Secretary-General, with an ecological crisis intersecting with social and political tensions to give rise to armed conflict.

Here and elsewhere, the effects of climate change – including water, food and energy insecurity, and rising sea levels – are fuelling geopolitical tensions, as well as forcing millions of people to move, with further ramifications for global security and stability.

The effects of the climate crisis and environmental degradation increase the likelihood and impact of conflict, including by displacing populations, increasing competition over vital resources, and stripping the state of the resources and capacity required to deal with other threats.

Conversely, armed conflict adversely impacts the environment, including by polluting water supplies, poisoning land, and harming natural habitats and ecosystems.

As the climate crisis intensifies and we witness more extreme weather events, the number of displaced persons spikes (now more than 120 million), and conflict events and fatalities increase, there’s an urgent need to address these complex and intersecting threats.

The way these threats intersect with each other, and with other human security threats, including poverty, hunger and gender inequality, needs attention.

Linear thinking, siloed working

Typically, however, the way the international system and academia is set up does not lend itself to deeply interconnected approaches to best-understand and address these challenges.

The way in which we work often requires us to distinguish ourselves into specific sectors or disciplines. We develop distinct languages and modus operandi, and position ourselves against, or in, competition with others. This hinders collaboration.

This linear thinking is evident when we recognise how the latest global crisis tends to shift attention and resources away from other crises. This happened with COVID-19, and, before that, the 2007-08 Global Financial Crisis, 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the 2015 European migration crisis, and the war in Ukraine.

These crises provoked a pivoting of resources away from conflict zones, leaving them vulnerable to an escalation or outbreak of conflict.

This pivoting impacts conflict dynamics and belies the complex interconnectedness of crises. How, for example, crises (such as pandemics or disasters) can deplete state and community resources and increase the risk of the outbreak or escalation of conflict, or how pandemics and conflict (such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine) can intensify food insecurity.

Innovative and interconnected approaches

Addressing such challenges requires innovative and interconnected thinking by experts, working across academic disciplines and industry sectors.

If we’re to better-understand and respond to such complex, interconnected challenges, we must find a way to draw from the skills and expertise of scholars, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines and sectors. It’s also critical that the skills and knowledge of those most directly affected by conflict and insecurity are included in the approaches to building global peace and security.

In recognition that complex, intersecting challenges demand interconnected and interdisciplinary approaches, the Monash Global Peace and Security centre (Monash GPS) hosted an event bringing together for the first time the centre’s significantly expanded global community to forge connections and interdisciplinary research collaborations that address threats to global peace and security.

Since the start of the year, the centre has expanded to now include more than 70 scholars, policymakers and practitioners, with extensive and diverse expertise across multiple disciplines and sectors.

This includes those who are working on issues related to global peace and security, such as the climate crisis, the mass displacement of peoples, socioeconomic inequalities, and technological advancements such as artificial intelligence.

The expanded GPS centre includes members and fellows across Monash’s campuses, faculties and centres, representing a broad range of disciplines, as well as global scholars, policymakers and practitioners, with expertise across Monash GPS’s 3 Research Pillars of People, Place and Technology.

The centre welcomes requests to join from those who conduct research or work in an area related to peace and security. Please email globalpeaceandsecurity@monash.edu.