What Australia’s climate targets mean for our health

The world is facing the clear and present threat of climate change; something once seen as future and hypothetical has well and truly arrived. Records tumbled in 2024 – the hottest year ever recorded – with the global average surface temperature exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.

Since a landmark 2009 paper named climate change as the coming century’s greatest health threat, initiatives such as the Lancet Countdown have tracked its growing toll on illness and death. Recent modelling now predicts climate change will lead to millions of excess deaths globally in the coming decades.

Last week the Australian government released three significant policy responses that will shape our country’s climate change agenda for years to come. They are the:

1. National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA)

2. National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

3. Emissions reductions target for 2035: 62-70% below 2005 levels

So, from a public health perspective, how should these announcements be viewed? How can they shed light on the current and future impacts of climate change on Australians’ health? And what action is needed – by governments, health systems and society as a whole?

Risk landscape: What does the NCRA tell us?

The NCRA offers a concerning picture of Australia’s climate vulnerability, applying a risk-based assessment of climate-related threats across eight key systems, emphasising the broad, whole-of-sector challenge posed by climate change.

Read more: Is this Australia’s climate wake-up call? Official report reveals a looming hotter, harder future

Among these, the health and social support system is of particular interest. It’s currently rated as “moderate”, but projected to escalate to “severe” by 2050, with impacts projected to be most severe on humans and environmental health compared to other systems. The broader health implications of such an escalation are wide-ranging.

The NCRA’s modelling suggests that a 3℃ rise in temperature could drive a more than 400% increase in heat-related mortality in major cities, while disruptions to transport and supply chains are likely to jeopardise access to essential medicines and further exacerbate challenges among already marginalised communities facing financial or geographic barriers to care, including First Nations communities.

The NCRA identifies potential exacerbations to chronic respiratory and cardiovascular conditions from declining air quality, higher risk of climate-sensitive communicable diseases, strain on critical health infrastructure – especially during extreme weather events – and rising mental ill-health as current and future impacts of the climate crisis.

Read more: Humidity, heat, and harm: Global review exposes the rising health risks

Ultimately, it underscores the deep interconnection between climate, health, infrastructure and equity – reminding us that climate change is more than just an environmental issue, it’s a public health crisis.

To meet this challenge, we must shift our decision-making to a “one health” approach that recognises the inseparability of human, environmental and animal health.

The response: National Adaptation Plan

Building on the climate risk landscape outlined in the NCRA, the NAP provides a framework for adapting to the challenges posed by climate change. It articulates an ambitious vision for adaptation that is coordinated, evidence-based, and inclusive – prioritising tailored approaches to support vulnerable communities and maximise co-benefits.

These objectives align closely with the 2023 National Health and Climate Strategy, which commits to building a climate-resilient health system capable of safeguarding the health of the population from climate risks.

The NAP also outlines the government's intention to develop a Health National Adaptation Plan (HNAP), aligned with the broader NAP and National Health and Climate Strategy.

This sector-specific plan provides a national coordinating framework to address the health impacts of climate change. Critically, the NAP recognises that effective health adaptation requires coordination across all levels of government and private and community sectors, reflecting the interconnection between health and other strategic systems.

For example, maintaining clean water supply is essential to protecting communities from water-borne diseases and other infections linked to changing rainfall patterns, particularly in remote communities.

Emissions reduction targets for 2035

Significant and rapid reductions are required for Australia to contribute its fair share of lowering emissions and help avoid worsening climate risks. Australia’s new 2035 target of 62-70% is higher than commitments from Canada (45-50%) and New Zealand (51-55%), but lower than that of the United Kingdom (approximately 78% below 2005 levels; its official commitment is 81% below 1990 levels).

The Australian Academy of Science has stated that emissions falling to 74% below 2005 levels by 2030, with net zero emissions achieved by 2035, would be consistent with the Paris goal of keeping temperatures well below 2°C.

This exposes a troubling gap between the risks clearly identified in the NCRA and the emissions reduction target set by the government.

Despite having a clear picture of the dangers, we’re still unwilling to take sufficient action to protect communities in Australia – or our vulnerable Pacific neighbours, for whom climate is an urgent priority.

From a health perspective, every fraction of a degree of warming matters. Rising global temperatures drive more extreme weather, increase illness and disease burden, and place greater strain on healthcare systems.

The NCRA starkly outlines the specific risks to Australians. Fortunately, many emissions-reductions measures bring health co-benefits, such as cleaner air from closing coal-fired power stations and improved health from active transport that reduces reliance on polluting travel.

Call to action

Coming out of the week packed with new announcements, what will important next steps be to protect Australians’ health from the impacts of climate change?

1. Implementation of the National Adaptation Plan. A mammoth task spanning all levels of government and every sector of the economy. From a health perspective, the 2023 National Health and Climate Strategy will be a key guide, outlining actions to strengthen healthcare system resilience while reducing the sector’s carbon footprint. A dedicated Health National Adaptation Plan is also in development.
2. A “health in all policies” approach. Climate and health are inseparable, and health impacts are embedded in decisions across all levels of government. Recognising these impacts can improve outcomes. For example, stronger housing standards are often framed economically, yet energy-efficient, well-insulated homes also deliver clear health benefits.
3. Investment in research and evaluation. A coordinated monitoring, evaluation and learning system is proposed to follow the NAP’s release, ensuring effective implementation. Given the urgency of climate threats and the scale of adaptation required, policy must be guided by the best evidence. With adequate support, Australia’s inherent research strengths can equip our policymakers to make informed decisions.
4. Further ambition for 2035 targets. Current targets fall short of what is needed to align with the Paris Agreement. As climate science and net zero technologies advance, targets should be reviewed regularly, with ambition increased accordingly.

As Australia faces this defining health challenge of the 21st century, it can help drive solutions by moving beyond its reliance on fossil fuels, and harnessing its strengths in climate science and health research.

Highly exposed to climate hazards yet well-resourced to respond, it’s well-positioned to develop effective mitigation and adaptation measures, and to support neighbouring low and middle-income countries – those least responsible for climate change – with the essential resources and technical assistance they need.